存储涨价追踪：DRAM / NAND 合约价走势
2026 年 DRAM / NAND 合约价实时追踪：TrendForce 季度数据、原厂涨价动作，以及对美光、SK 海力士、三星、SNDK 的含义。
存储涨价原因 · 存储涨价趋势 · DRAM 合约价 · NAND 涨价幅度
| 季度 | 服务器/常规 DRAM 环比 | NAND 环比 | 状态 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2Q26 | +58–63% | +70–75% | done |
| 3Q26 | +13–18% | +10–15% | done |
| 4Q26 | forecast ~9/24–25 | forecast ~9/24–25 | pending |
| 9/19-20 | Citi memory outlook | shortages deepen through 2031; 2027 DRAM capacity growth seen capped ~8% — the sell-side anchor into MU 9/30 | |
| 9/20 | CXMT G5 mass production (Reuters) | 5th-gen DRAM platform + 24Gb LPDDR5X (11.95nm SAQP, DUV-only) — first supply clock on the shortage consensus | |
| 9/21 | Samsung HBM4/4E capacity plan (SE Daily via TPU) | glass-carrier math: 20k→50k wpm in 2027 (2.5x); total HBM ~180k→~250k wpm, 80% HBM4/4E — first hard 2027 supply-response number | |
| 9/22 | TrendForce MU preview | big-five hyperscaler CapEx +13.2% to $1.17T in FY28; focus on HBM4 ramp, LTAs, margin durability into 9/30 | |
| 9/21 | Agent memory footprint (Wccftech math) | 100M Muse users ≈ 1.58M Ryzen-class CPUs, 800PB DRAM, 10,000PB SSD — agent workloads as a second memory demand curve | |
| 9/22 | Rosenblatt initiates SNDK (Buy, $2,400) | 8 largest NAND customers contracted over ~65% of FY2028 production — first contract-side evidence for cycle smoothing; risks named: execution, commodity reversion | |
| 9/22 | Chosun Ilbo: AI demand splits DRAM and NAND | the divergence goes mainstream; TrendForce lists Muse as a CPU:GPU ratio driver — agent memory elasticity enters industry-research canon | |
| 9/22 | SK hynix CEO Global Forum (event 9/18) | 'AI industry cannot exist without memory'; Yongin + Indiana + new US AI R&D center; HBM4 already in NVIDIA Rubin, HBM4E in progress | |
| 9/23 | Businesskorea: Samsung/SKH HBM race | both racing to expand HBM output as supply stays tight; Samsung/SKH buyback window ~1 week left | |
| 9/23 | DIGITIMES: labs to buy memory directly | OpenAI and Anthropic expected to start direct purchases from makers in 2027; Anthropic DRAM demand 'rivals NVIDIA's' (via Chosun/aju Press); Stargate groundwork up to 900k wpm expansion at Samsung/SK | |
| 9/23 | Bernstein HBM share shift | Samsung HBM growth outpaced SK hynix in August; Q3 HBM revenue forecast +72% QoQ on HBM4 acceleration; JPMorgan (single-source relay) 63% demand CAGR 2026-28 | |
| 9/23 | TrendForce spot check | DRAM spot 'cautious'; DDR4 2Gx8 -3.6% on the day — the 4Q26 contract forecast (due ~9/24-25) is the direction valve | |
| 9/23 | YMTC v Micron, German court | court reportedly finds Micron infringed two NAND patents, grants injunctions — YMTC's first win in the 3-year patent war; a legal tail into MU 9/30 | |
| 9/23 | Wolfe raises SKHY ADR to $250 | models SKHY/MU buying back 32%/25% of market cap via 2027 FCF — memory discourse shifts to FCF buyback capacity | |
| 9/23 | Samsung LPDDR6 first Snapdragon validation | 10.7Gbps on 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6, +21% efficiency vs LPDDR5X; Galaxy S27 may split tiers (1g LPDDR5X on some models); CXMT LPDDR6 at 12.8Gbps already in mass production (Xiaomi 18 Fold first platform) — mobile DRAM becomes a Samsung vs CXMT head-to-head timetable | |
| 9/24 | Micron EOLs 2GB GDDR7 | 3GB chip ~$60-70 vs $20 for 2GB (VideoCardz) — ~3x price for +50% capacity; RTX 50 Super constrained by 3GB costs; bits keep migrating to highest-value products in the shortage | |
| 9/24 | CXMT/YMTC capacity ramp | CXMT DRAM ~320k -> 420k wpm by 2027; YMTC 3rd Wuhan fab end-2026 — but institutions see China's own AI/cloud demand soaking up new supply through 2027; global impact 2028+ at earliest | |
| 9/24 | SNDK index-flow test day 4/5 | close $1,753.62: below the 9/18 close $1,791.82, above the half-giveback line ~$1,703 — momentum quality deteriorating; verdict 9/28 |
最新免费期数
- Oracle 对 $165B 数据中心启动 force majeure——电力瓶颈第一次写进合同；NBIS 锁定 10/1 提价 17-21%、TSMC 锁定 2027 涨价 3-6%，背景是 10Y 5.16%
- 模型实验室开始绕过中间商——这边洽谈 1GW 直租，那边 2027 直采 DRAM；软银给 OpenAI 的钱定出价格：9-10%；Connect 给 agent 定了抽成，Amazon 给了封锁
- 减速倡议十天后，模型层开打价格战；阿里在峰会前 48 小时亮出全栈算力时间表；Muse 写下第一份受害者名单
独立研究信息，不构成投资建议。