Memory price forecast & tracker (2026)
Live tracker of DRAM and NAND contract price moves in 2026 — TrendForce quarterly data, supplier pricing actions, and what the memory supercycle means for MU, SK hynix, Samsung and SNDK.
memory price forecast 2026 · DRAM contract price · NAND price increase · memory supercycle
| Period | Server/Conventional DRAM QoQ | NAND QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2Q26 | +58–63% | +70–75% | done |
| 3Q26 | +13–18% | +10–15% | done |
| 4Q26 | forecast ~9/24–25 | forecast ~9/24–25 | pending |
| 9/19-20 | Citi memory outlook | shortages deepen through 2031; 2027 DRAM capacity growth seen capped ~8% — the sell-side anchor into MU 9/30 | |
| 9/20 | CXMT G5 mass production (Reuters) | 5th-gen DRAM platform + 24Gb LPDDR5X (11.95nm SAQP, DUV-only) — first supply clock on the shortage consensus | |
| 9/21 | Samsung HBM4/4E capacity plan (SE Daily via TPU) | glass-carrier math: 20k→50k wpm in 2027 (2.5x); total HBM ~180k→~250k wpm, 80% HBM4/4E — first hard 2027 supply-response number | |
| 9/22 | TrendForce MU preview | big-five hyperscaler CapEx +13.2% to $1.17T in FY28; focus on HBM4 ramp, LTAs, margin durability into 9/30 | |
| 9/21 | Agent memory footprint (Wccftech math) | 100M Muse users ≈ 1.58M Ryzen-class CPUs, 800PB DRAM, 10,000PB SSD — agent workloads as a second memory demand curve | |
| 9/22 | Rosenblatt initiates SNDK (Buy, $2,400) | 8 largest NAND customers contracted over ~65% of FY2028 production — first contract-side evidence for cycle smoothing; risks named: execution, commodity reversion | |
| 9/22 | Chosun Ilbo: AI demand splits DRAM and NAND | the divergence goes mainstream; TrendForce lists Muse as a CPU:GPU ratio driver — agent memory elasticity enters industry-research canon | |
| 9/22 | SK hynix CEO Global Forum (event 9/18) | 'AI industry cannot exist without memory'; Yongin + Indiana + new US AI R&D center; HBM4 already in NVIDIA Rubin, HBM4E in progress | |
| 9/23 | Businesskorea: Samsung/SKH HBM race | both racing to expand HBM output as supply stays tight; Samsung/SKH buyback window ~1 week left | |
| 9/23 | DIGITIMES: labs to buy memory directly | OpenAI and Anthropic expected to start direct purchases from makers in 2027; Anthropic DRAM demand 'rivals NVIDIA's' (via Chosun/aju Press); Stargate groundwork up to 900k wpm expansion at Samsung/SK | |
| 9/23 | Bernstein HBM share shift | Samsung HBM growth outpaced SK hynix in August; Q3 HBM revenue forecast +72% QoQ on HBM4 acceleration; JPMorgan (single-source relay) 63% demand CAGR 2026-28 | |
| 9/23 | TrendForce spot check | DRAM spot 'cautious'; DDR4 2Gx8 -3.6% on the day — the 4Q26 contract forecast (due ~9/24-25) is the direction valve | |
| 9/23 | YMTC v Micron, German court | court reportedly finds Micron infringed two NAND patents, grants injunctions — YMTC's first win in the 3-year patent war; a legal tail into MU 9/30 | |
| 9/23 | Wolfe raises SKHY ADR to $250 | models SKHY/MU buying back 32%/25% of market cap via 2027 FCF — memory discourse shifts to FCF buyback capacity | |
| 9/23 | Samsung LPDDR6 first Snapdragon validation | 10.7Gbps on 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6, +21% efficiency vs LPDDR5X; Galaxy S27 may split tiers (1g LPDDR5X on some models); CXMT LPDDR6 at 12.8Gbps already in mass production (Xiaomi 18 Fold first platform) — mobile DRAM becomes a Samsung vs CXMT head-to-head timetable | |
| 9/24 | Micron EOLs 2GB GDDR7 | 3GB chip ~$60-70 vs $20 for 2GB (VideoCardz) — ~3x price for +50% capacity; RTX 50 Super constrained by 3GB costs; bits keep migrating to highest-value products in the shortage | |
| 9/24 | CXMT/YMTC capacity ramp | CXMT DRAM ~320k -> 420k wpm by 2027; YMTC 3rd Wuhan fab end-2026 — but institutions see China's own AI/cloud demand soaking up new supply through 2027; global impact 2028+ at earliest | |
| 9/24 | SNDK index-flow test day 4/5 | close $1,753.62: below the 9/18 close $1,791.82, above the half-giveback line ~$1,703 — momentum quality deteriorating; verdict 9/28 |
Latest free issues
- Oracle invokes force majeure on its $165B data center — the power bottleneck just became contractual; Nebius locks 17-21% hikes for Oct 1 and TSMC locks 3-6% for 2027, all against a 5.16% 10Y
- Model labs start cutting out the middlemen — a 1GW direct lease here, direct DRAM buying from 2027 there; SoftBank finally puts a price on OpenAI money: 9-10%; Connect gives agents a take-rate and Amazon gives them a blockade
- Ten Days After the Slowdown Call, the Model Layer Starts a Price War; Alibaba Tables a Full-Stack Compute Timeline 48 Hours Before the Summit; Muse Writes Its First Victim List
Get the free daily preview Data tracker How we compare
Independent research and information — not investment advice.