HBM capacity, supply & packaging tracker
HBM4 supply, capacity bookings through 2027, CoWoS packaging and the Rubin downspec risk — tracking SK hynix, Samsung, Micron and TSMC as the AI memory cycle unfolds.
HBM4 supply · HBM capacity 2027 · SK hynix HBM · Micron HBM · CoWoS capacity
| Date | Event | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| 9/10 | TSMC August revenue | NT$514.8B, +53.3% YoY, all-time monthly record |
| 9/18 | TrendForce packaging outlook | CoWoS-L mainstream through 2028; 2026 high-end GPU shipments +30% YoY |
| 9/17 | Google TPU packaging | evaluating CoWoS backup as Intel EMIB-T yields lag (~90% vs 98% gate) |
| 9/18 | TrendForce: equipment component lead times | reportedly doubled, stretching to 40 months — 2027 supply cannot turn around |
| 9/20 | SK hynix hybrid bonding gate (Herald Business) | 90-98% yield non-negotiable; adoption pushed to HBM5; NVDA said to be eyeing lower-spec HBM options |
| 9/21 | Taiwan advanced packaging park groundbreaking | TSMC-anchored site breaks ground — forward land-slot signal for 2027-28 CoWoS supply |
| 9/21 | Intel × AUO packaging talks (UNCONFIRMED) | reports of cooperation on CPO/Micro LED advanced packaging — first external flagship-customer signal if it lands |
| 9/22 | Alibaba full-stack compute timetable (Apsara) | Zhenwu V900 mass production 1Q27 (3x M890, 216GB, 1.2TB/s, FP8/FP4); ICN switch composes 500k-chip clusters; Panjiu supernode 1Q27; Yitian 720/730 CPUs 3Q27 |
| 9/23 | UBS CoWoS note (media relay, single source) | capacity seen raised to 270k wpm; ASICs and CPUs lead the next expansion wave — the packaging demand matrix widens beyond GPUs |
| 9/23 | TechInsights iPhone 18 Pro teardown | TSMC 2nm nanosheet transistors confirmed in volume silicon — first third-party evidence of the 2nm ramp |
| 9/24 | TSMC locks 2027 price hikes 3-6% | from Jan 2027, advanced nodes leading; AI orders reportedly paying up to triple (DigiTimes original, widely relayed); capacity seen tight through 2030 |
| 9/25 | 12-inch wafer LTAs +15-40% | 2027 epi +15-25%, polished +40%+ (2nd-tier possibly +50%+); spot could exceed LTA as early as 4Q26; pandemic-era LTAs expiring (Commercial Times via TrendForce) |
| 9/23 | Intel EMIB substrate yields ~45% | from ~30% in 2Q26; targets 50% by 4Q26, 60% by 1Q27; EMIB-T shifts interconnect integration to substrate suppliers — negative read for the Google TPU backup thesis (VERIFY) |
Latest free issues
- Oracle invokes force majeure on its $165B data center — the power bottleneck just became contractual; Nebius locks 17-21% hikes for Oct 1 and TSMC locks 3-6% for 2027, all against a 5.16% 10Y
- Model labs start cutting out the middlemen — a 1GW direct lease here, direct DRAM buying from 2027 there; SoftBank finally puts a price on OpenAI money: 9-10%; Connect gives agents a take-rate and Amazon gives them a blockade
- Ten Days After the Slowdown Call, the Model Layer Starts a Price War; Alibaba Tables a Full-Stack Compute Timeline 48 Hours Before the Summit; Muse Writes Its First Victim List
Get the free daily preview Data tracker How we compare
Independent research and information — not investment advice.