HBM 产能、供给与先进封装追踪
追踪 HBM4 供给、2026-2027 产能预订、CoWoS 封装与 Rubin 降配风险：SK 海力士、三星、美光与台积电的 AI 存储周期全景。
hbm产能 2027 · 三星hbm产能 · 美光hbm产能翻倍 · cowos 产能
| 日期 | 事件 | 读数 |
|---|---|---|
| 9/10 | TSMC August revenue | NT$514.8B, +53.3% YoY, all-time monthly record |
| 9/18 | TrendForce packaging outlook | CoWoS-L mainstream through 2028; 2026 high-end GPU shipments +30% YoY |
| 9/17 | Google TPU packaging | evaluating CoWoS backup as Intel EMIB-T yields lag (~90% vs 98% gate) |
| 9/18 | TrendForce: equipment component lead times | reportedly doubled, stretching to 40 months — 2027 supply cannot turn around |
| 9/20 | SK hynix hybrid bonding gate (Herald Business) | 90-98% yield non-negotiable; adoption pushed to HBM5; NVDA said to be eyeing lower-spec HBM options |
| 9/21 | Taiwan advanced packaging park groundbreaking | TSMC-anchored site breaks ground — forward land-slot signal for 2027-28 CoWoS supply |
| 9/21 | Intel × AUO packaging talks (UNCONFIRMED) | reports of cooperation on CPO/Micro LED advanced packaging — first external flagship-customer signal if it lands |
| 9/22 | Alibaba full-stack compute timetable (Apsara) | Zhenwu V900 mass production 1Q27 (3x M890, 216GB, 1.2TB/s, FP8/FP4); ICN switch composes 500k-chip clusters; Panjiu supernode 1Q27; Yitian 720/730 CPUs 3Q27 |
| 9/23 | UBS CoWoS note (media relay, single source) | capacity seen raised to 270k wpm; ASICs and CPUs lead the next expansion wave — the packaging demand matrix widens beyond GPUs |
| 9/23 | TechInsights iPhone 18 Pro teardown | TSMC 2nm nanosheet transistors confirmed in volume silicon — first third-party evidence of the 2nm ramp |
| 9/24 | TSMC locks 2027 price hikes 3-6% | from Jan 2027, advanced nodes leading; AI orders reportedly paying up to triple (DigiTimes original, widely relayed); capacity seen tight through 2030 |
| 9/25 | 12-inch wafer LTAs +15-40% | 2027 epi +15-25%, polished +40%+ (2nd-tier possibly +50%+); spot could exceed LTA as early as 4Q26; pandemic-era LTAs expiring (Commercial Times via TrendForce) |
| 9/23 | Intel EMIB substrate yields ~45% | from ~30% in 2Q26; targets 50% by 4Q26, 60% by 1Q27; EMIB-T shifts interconnect integration to substrate suppliers — negative read for the Google TPU backup thesis (VERIFY) |
最新免费期数
- Oracle 对 $165B 数据中心启动 force majeure——电力瓶颈第一次写进合同；NBIS 锁定 10/1 提价 17-21%、TSMC 锁定 2027 涨价 3-6%，背景是 10Y 5.16%
- 模型实验室开始绕过中间商——这边洽谈 1GW 直租，那边 2027 直采 DRAM；软银给 OpenAI 的钱定出价格：9-10%；Connect 给 agent 定了抽成，Amazon 给了封锁
- 减速倡议十天后，模型层开打价格战；阿里在峰会前 48 小时亮出全栈算力时间表；Muse 写下第一份受害者名单
独立研究信息，不构成投资建议。