算力租赁追踪：Neocloud 定价、融资与龙头股
实时追踪 CoreWeave、Nebius、IREN 的算力租赁定价与融资：GPU 租赁价格、$/MW 短约、可转债发行，以及资本成本对股价的含义。
算力租赁龙头股 · 算力租赁价格 · GPU 租赁涨价 · CoreWeave 分析
| 日期 | 事件 | 读数 |
|---|---|---|
| 9/17 | CoreWeave short-term contracts | ~$40M/MW annualized, contracted power 3.7→4.2GW |
| 9/17 | Nebius rate hike notice | on-demand GPU rates up from 10/1 |
| 9/19 | CoreWeave convertible priced | $3.7B (upsized) at 2.875% due 2033 |
| 9/19 | Nscale files for NYSE IPO | up to $35B valuation; $44.6B Anthropic contract |
| 9/18 | Nscale S-1 (NYSE) | contracted pipeline passes $100B per filing coverage; $44.6B Anthropic; 25k deployed / 461k contracted |
| 9/20 | Bloomberg: Big Tech AI guarantees | up to $300B extended over the past year to finance AI DCs/chips — off balance sheet |
| 9/20 | Anthropic IPO timing (reported) | Oct → Nov; Q2 revenue >$11.5B vs Q1 $4.7B; ~$2T valuation, up to $100B raise eyed; OpenAI to 2027 |
| 9/21 | Nscale F-1 publicly filed (NYSE) | >$103B contracted backlog, ~85% Microsoft+Anthropic; Fortune flags going-concern language + $3B Nvidia note; up to $35B valuation |
| 9/21 | SoftBank $11B junk bond launched | replaces $10B OpenAI bridge, funds next tranche; pricing ~9/24 — first public-debt grade of OpenAI credit |
| 9/21 | Anthropic IPO update | NYT: moving ahead; Reuters: weighs new model ahead of IPO; FT Lex: $2T "not far-fetched"; Coinbase opens retail IPO access |
| 9/22 | Model-layer price war | Anthropic Opus 5.5 ($4/$20, -20% vs Opus 5) and OpenAI GPT-6 Sol/Luna ($2/$10, $0.10/$0.50 — 50% cuts) shipped 90 min apart, 10 days after the slowdown call |
| 9/22 | SoftBank $11B junk bond early book | over $20B preliminary demand (~2x covered); pricing ~9/24; total OpenAI commitment approaching $65B |
| 9/22 | CRWV convertible settled at $4.2B | $500M option exercised in full, 2.875% due 2033; same-day sell-side split: Rothschild Redburn Sell $54 vs Evercore ISI $150 |
| 9/22 | Anthropic IPO timing (WSJ) | confirmed delayed ~1 month (Oct → Nov); Forbes flags employee 10b5-1 plans |
| 9/23 | SoftBank $11.1B priced | USD tranches ~9-10% (3.5/5.5/7.5yr), EUR mid-8%; book >2x ($20B+); settles 9/29, funds the third $10B OpenAI tranche on 10/1; 9984.T opened +7% on Tokyo's reopen (last +3.6%) |
| 9/22-23 | Anthropic 1GW direct-lease talks | The Information: talks with Apollo-backed Stream Data Centers — labs internalizing the DC layer; 20-30MW site hunting continues (DCD) |
| 9/23 | Connect: Muse take-rate | first explicit agent-commerce pricing model (small fee on transactions); Amazon blockade (event 9/21) escalates into an open standoff; Stripe/Shop Pay/PayPal rails |
| 9/23 | Crusoe × Thinking Machines Lab | compute deal signed — mid-size labs emerging as a new buyer class |
| 9/24 | NBIS Oct 1 rate card quantified | H100 +17% / H200 +20% / B200 +19% / B300 +21% — second hike in three months; the compute-pricing-power thesis gets SKU-level contract numbers |
| 9/24 | JPMorgan upgrades CRWV (OW, $125) | premium short-dated contracts add 5-10pp to contribution margins; contracted power 3.1GW (end-25) -> 4.2GW (8/11); counter-case: IREN -1.9% on Rothschild Neutral $40 (5GW power base vs AI revenue capital gap) |
| 9/24 | Nscale F-1: ByteDance = 75% of sales | second concentration layer on top of 85% backlog concentration (MSFT+Anthropic); IPO pricing = the concentration-discount read |
最新免费期数
- Oracle 对 $165B 数据中心启动 force majeure——电力瓶颈第一次写进合同；NBIS 锁定 10/1 提价 17-21%、TSMC 锁定 2027 涨价 3-6%，背景是 10Y 5.16%
- 模型实验室开始绕过中间商——这边洽谈 1GW 直租，那边 2027 直采 DRAM；软银给 OpenAI 的钱定出价格：9-10%；Connect 给 agent 定了抽成，Amazon 给了封锁
- 减速倡议十天后，模型层开打价格战；阿里在峰会前 48 小时亮出全栈算力时间表；Muse 写下第一份受害者名单
独立研究信息，不构成投资建议。