Track record
Every issue ends with three watch items. Scored in public, 7–30 days later. Misses stay here.
Every issue ends with 3 Things to Watch. Each is scored HIT / MISS / PENDING 7–30 days later, in public. Misses stay on this page.
| Date | Watch item | Verdict by | Status | Result |
| 2026-09-18 | Micron FY26Q4 (9/30): HBM4 share and 2027 contract-price guidance decide whether the memory cycle is 'accelerating' or 'converging at a high level'. | 2026-10-05 | PENDING | — |
| 2026-09-18 | TrendForce 4Q26 forecast (~9/24–25): if DRAM gains keep converging while NAND flattens, the 'supercycle' acceleration premise needs re-rating. | 2026-09-28 | PENDING | — |
| 2026-09-18 | CoreWeave convertible pricing coupon is the direct read on neocloud cost of capital — a rich coupon re-rates the whole sector. | 2026-09-25 | HIT | Priced 9/19 at 2.875% (upsized to $3.7B) — cheaper than feared. Worker recorded the resolution same day. |
| 2026-09-18 | Nebius raising on-demand GPU rates on 10/1 tests whether neocloud pricing power is industry-wide. | 2026-10-08 | PENDING | — |
Updated 2026-09-19 · Shanghai