AI capex, power & data center investment tracker
Hyperscaler capex cycles, power constraints, data center financing and the Generac-style second-order trades — where the AI buildout money actually flows.
ai capex 2026 · ai capex forecast · ai capex cycle · data center spending
| Date | Event | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| 9/16 | Amazon × Generac | backup-generator deal up to $8B (first phase $2.4B, 2027–28) |
| 9/17 | Ratepayer Protection Act | House passed 417–3; stalled in Senate — data centers ≥150MW to self-fund grid upgrades |
| 9/17 | Oregon data center report | 111 facilities consume nearly 25% of state power |
| 9/21 (eff.) | S&P index changes | Bloom Energy joins S&P 500 ($25B backlog); SNDK joins S&P 100 |
| 9/21 | Texas halts ALL DC environmental permits | Abbott directs TCEQ pause pending grid/water audit; expansion of earlier moratorium |
| 9/21 | Morgan Stanley power shortfall raised to 33GW | same day: California enacts 7 DC power/water laws — bottleneck migrates from power to permits/politics |
| 9/22 | Texas freeze's political engine confirmed | Bloomberg ties the permit halt to a tightening governor's race; NJ fines Vineland DC $1M for unpermitted generators; California details energy-oversight rules |
| 9/22 | Alibaba 20GW by 2032 target | cloud DC capacity target with RMB 380B capex unchanged; Citi: ~$160B external cloud revenue by FY33 (~40% CAGR) |
| 9/22-23 | Texas freeze extends to electric permits | one week after the water-use directive, data-center electric permitting halts too; Utility Dive tracks national anti-speculation momentum — permitting-window scarcity deepens |
| 9/24 | Oracle force majeure on Project Jupiter | $165B NM campus for OpenAI (STACK/Blue Owl): gas pipeline Aug-26 -> Feb-27 on state regulation; power is Oracle's contractual responsibility; lease irrevocable; project debt <90c; BE (2.45GW fuel cells) -8% intraday; SB Energy delays IPO — FM clauses 'becoming more common' in DC contracts |
| 9/24 | Texas double escalation | AG Paxton probes hundreds of DCs over unfiled water-usage data; TCEQ freeze may extend beyond ERCOT review — permit-window tightening steepens (verdict 10/22) |
| 9/24 | China probes DeepSeek/Moonshot | alleged user-data transfers to Anthropic's Claude (MLex) — domestic data-border tightening in the same week as the summit's AI notification mechanism; BABA -3~4% on reported (unconfirmed) AI-probe headlines |
Latest free issues
- Oracle invokes force majeure on its $165B data center — the power bottleneck just became contractual; Nebius locks 17-21% hikes for Oct 1 and TSMC locks 3-6% for 2027, all against a 5.16% 10Y
- Model labs start cutting out the middlemen — a 1GW direct lease here, direct DRAM buying from 2027 there; SoftBank finally puts a price on OpenAI money: 9-10%; Connect gives agents a take-rate and Amazon gives them a blockade
- Ten Days After the Slowdown Call, the Model Layer Starts a Price War; Alibaba Tables a Full-Stack Compute Timeline 48 Hours Before the Summit; Muse Writes Its First Victim List
Get the free daily preview Data tracker How we compare
Independent research and information — not investment advice.